JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia's presidential election season formally kicks off this week, pitting incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a popular reformer who is tipped to win, against a political elite with its roots in the Suharto era.
The registration of candidates runs from May 10-16, with Vice President Jusuf Kalla of Golkar Party, former President Suharto's political machine, and former President Megawati Sukarnoputri of PDI-P both likely to run against Yudhoyono, backed by coalitions.
The outcome of the presidential election on July 8, with a second round soon after if there is no clear winner, will determine whether Southeast Asia's biggest economy continues with reforms that are critical for attracting foreign investment, creating jobs and driving economic growth.
Yudhoyono's approval rating of over 70 percent, against 5-6 percent for Megawati and 3-4 percent for Kalla, makes it almost certain he will win a second term, bar some unexpected blow.
"His number one achievement is the economy, especially in the past eight months," said Anies Baswedan, a political analyst and rector of Paramadina University.
"Indonesia is one of very few countries in Asia which is now doing okay in the middle of a global financial crisis."
It's not just on the economic front that Indonesia is outshining some of its neighbours.
As the first president since 1998 to serve a full five-year term, Yudhoyono has also delivered security, political stability, a strong sense of democracy, and has made some progress in tackling widespread corruption and reform of the military.
"Indonesia is doing very well compared to its neighbours," said political analyst Damien Kingsbury, an associate professor at Deakin University.
But, Kingsbury and others say, reforms are nowhere near complete, and much more needs to be done to address graft, overhaul the civil service, judiciary and police, and improve ailing infrastructure which adds to the cost of doing business.
"It's more than any one person can do in one term. Aspects of his presidency are incomplete, and that's a strong argument for a second term in office," Kingsbury said.
POLITICAL EXPEDIENCY
In last month's parliamentary elections, Yudhoyono's Democrat Party won a fifth of the votes, giving it the biggest share of the seats in parliament.
Together with the Islamic and Islamist parties, his coalition may well get over half the seats, putting it in a stronger position to push through reforms.
What investors will be watching this time is his choice of ministers. In his first term, when the Democrats won less than 10 percent of the votes, Yudhoyono had to opt for political expediency over reform credentials and competence for some key cabinet posts, hampering his administration.
Yudhoyono's nearest rival is PDI-P chair Megawati, the daughter of Indonesia's first president, Sukarno, and the lead opposition figure in the dying days of the Suharto era.
She is likely to pick ex-general Prabowo Subianto as her vice presidential candidate, potentially alienating some supporters given Prabowo's involvement in the kidnap of pro-democracy activists -- including PDI-P members -- in the late 1990s.
Megawati, who did little to push reform or tackle corruption while in power, is considered pro-military and weak when it comes to economic issues.
Yudhoyono's other competitor is his current vice president, Kalla, a former businessman from South Sulawesi who is credited with hammering out peace deals in Aceh, Poso and Maluku.
Kalla was an invaluable coalition partner for Yudhoyono because as Golkar chair he controlled a large block of parliamentary votes. But his approval rating is low, as is that of his running mate, Wiranto, a former armed forces chief accused of human rights abuses in East Timor.
While none come close to Yudhoyono in the opinion polls, all four of his main rivals, Megawati, Prabowo, Kalla, and Wiranto, have sworn to form a grand coalition to oppose Yudhoyono in parliament potentially making it hard to pass legislation.
"My feeling is that as soon as the election is over, the grand coalition will be over too," said Baswedan.
"It's very difficult to unite these interests and it would be quite easy for the government to break it up by offering some incentive to come over to the other side."
Copyright © 2008 Reuters
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