Taib is buying time and comtemplating his next move

Uncertainty looms in the shadows of hope.

Sarawak Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud announced that the coming state election might be his last and that he was retiring from politics because of old age and his family commitments.

Don’t you believe it!

He may have said, “And I reserve the best for the last,” and “It’s time to call it a day.”

It is all a smokescreen to flush out where the strongest or perhaps, the weakest allegiance to him lies.

He is also consumed by vanity. He loves to hear people pleading with him to stay on. Unfortunately, despots yearn for power just as much as they crave adulation.

Remember how last September everyone was gripped by talk of Taib finally stepping down?

He told the Sarawak people that he was prepared to step down if the people “did not want him anymore”.

It was fortunate the people did not come out onto the streets dancing with joy for he would have dealt them a heavy blow. That heavy blow was reserved for the veteran editor of the Sarawak Tribune who published the damming article on Taib, called “Is Taib Mahmud testing the waters?”

Not only did the editorial board get a blistering reprimand from Hanifah, Taib’s daughter, which lasted till the early hours of the morning, Paul Si was suspended for a couple of weeks and possibly sacked.

When Taib dropped that remark about quitting, it was a calculated statement to find out who might possibly be acting against him.

For people like Taib, power is like having an addiction to opium – one cannot have enough of it.

At the end of last year, support for him floundered and he suspected groups may have lobbied the federal leadership behind his back. He knew that some sections of the community wanted him to step down as they appeared to have lost confidence in him.

Hence, his marriage of convenience, simply to boost his popularity ratings.

Enter the buxom Ragad Waleed Alkurdi; the perfect arm-candy for a geriatric like Taib.

Who can resist being charmed by her sultry looks. It would be enough to send many of the elderly 'tuai rumah' heady and persuade them that perhaps there is still some life left in the old dog yet. They are probably thinking Taib deserves their vote. Knowing how longhouses work, the whole longhouse will follow suit in their voting preference. Taib’s appeal increases, but only because of Ragad.

The marriage is in itself an indication that Taib does not keep his word. Didn’t he tell Semariang assemblywoman Sharifah Hashidah Syed Aman Ghazali's last May that he was not interested in marrying again?

He said, “I am already 74. It's too old for me to get a new partner now.”

But it can’t be nice for poor Ragad. There he was in Mukah telling everyone he is old. Can he not be a bit more sensitive about her feelings? Few women in her position want to be reminded that they are married to much older men. She registers enough pain when she sees the quizzical looks in people’s eyes who wonder what it is, she sees in Taib.

Taib has smartly combined the sympathy vote and the ploy to find out who is loyal to him.

More importantly, Taib is buying time - not just to select a suitable successor but also to see how the troubles in the middle-east pan out.

Taib’s succession plans are in disarray. Sulaiman, the heir apparent is allegedly being treated for a life-style disease in Canada. There are several wannabes waiting in the shadows ready to stab each other in the back and given half a chance, probably Taib himself. And his cousin Norah Abdul Rahman, is not quite ready. She is too compliant and has none of his cunning.

A weak person in the post of Chief minister will be detrimental.

The troubles in north Africa and the middle-east, have messed up the plans of all those corrupt politicians in Malaysia.  Taib is denied a smooth transition of power from him, to his successor.

What if that person is not powerful enough to hold back the tide of change and caves in to the demands for Taib to list his wealth and return it to the Sarawak people?

If Taib were to fall, his personal empire, built over the decades will crumble. His fortune and his personal freedom will be curtailed. He has vowed that if he goes down, he wil not hesitate to bring down all those in the Peninsular.

In the 18 days of mass demonstrations in Egypt, ex-president Hosni Mubarak told the Egyptians to return home as he would implement changes at the next elections to be held in September. They resisted and he played them out for as long as he could.  Mubarak used that period to shift his vast personal fortune abroad.

Taib is playing a game with the Sarawak people.  Like whatever he does, it is not clear cut and simple. There is plenty happening behind the scenes. He does not have too many options but to give up power now, is not on the cards. He is still very much in control.